Briefing: May 9, 2025

Tariffs and the Resale Market, OECD’s Counterfeit Report & the U.S.-UK Trade Deal

Resale: The Trade War’s Big Winner?

Resale may be the big winner in the enduring trade war if the likes of ThredUP and The RealReal are any indication. Online resale marketplace ThredUP delivered stronger-than-expected first-quarter results, reporting $71.3 million in revenue – a 10.5% increase from the prior year and roughly 4% above Wall Street estimates. CEO and co-founder James Reinhart pointed to looming U.S. tariffs on Chinese apparel imports and the tightening of the “de minimis” exemption, which currently allows low-value shipments to enter the U.S. duty-free, as potential tailwinds for the secondhand market.

“While we expect tariff-induced disruptions to global trade to normalize over time, we do not anticipate a broad rollback of the de minimis loophole closure. We believe the closure of the exemption is likely to cause higher prices for these goods and to reduce production volumes, both of which could be a positive for ThredUP,” Reinhart said during the company’s earnings call.

He also noted that advertising costs have eased as fast-fashion giants like Shein and Temu pull back on digital spending, a relief for ThredUP amid previous pressure from rising customer acquisition costs. Even before these trade and marketing shifts, core metrics were trending upward: active buyers rose 6% to 1.37 million, and new-buyer growth hit a record 95%. AI-driven shopping tools such as visual search and “Shop Similar” features are also boosting engagement.

Meanwhile, The RealReal reported Q1 earnings this week, revealing a robust start to 2025 with first-quarter revenue rising 11% YoY to $160 million and gross merchandise value up 9% to $490 million.

CEO Rati Levesque highlighted the company’s strategic execution, citing growth in new consignors, enhanced operational efficiency, and effective use of AI. She also hinted that the impact of tariffs might fall in its favor, stating that while there are certainly “macroeconomic uncertainty [and] geopolitical instability,” the company occupies “a unique position at the intersection of luxury and value, and we source our supply primarily from domestic closets, so there is potential to realize benefits in the current environment.”

Mapping Global Trade in Fakes 2025 

The OECD released its Mapping Global Trade in Fakes 2025 report this week in cooperation with the EUIPO to provide “a detailed picture of the global counterfeit trade and offers practical guidance for policymakers to protect consumers, support legitimate businesses, and uphold the integrity of international trade.” Drawing on 2021 customs seizure data, the report reveals that counterfeit and pirated goods accounted for up to 2.3% of global trade and 4.7% of EU imports. It highlights the growing sophistication of illicit networks – leveraging e-commerce, postal services, and free trade zones – to move counterfeit goods ranging from luxury items to dangerous products like fake pharmaceuticals.

With the EU identified as a major target, and China and Hong Kong as leading sources, the report warns that “the growing scale and complexity of counterfeiting requires stronger, more coordinated actions at the international level, including collaboration with rights holders, online platforms and transport and logistics companies.”

Key findings include … 

> 62% of all seized counterfeit goods were clothing, footwear, and leather goods, making them the most affected sectors.

> Hazardous counterfeits are increasingly prevalent, including fake automotive parts, medicines, cosmetics, toys, and food, posing serious health and safety risks.

> China accounted for 45% of all reported seizures in 2021, with other key source countries located in Asia, the Middle East, and Latin America.

> Counterfeiters are increasingly “savvy,” quickly replicating trending products, advertising them online, and exploiting less regulated shipping methods.

> Around 65% of seizures now involve small parcels and mail, reflecting a strategic shift toward faster, lower-risk distribution channels.

What a U.S., UK Trade Deal Means for Retail

President Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced a U.S.-UK trade agreement aimed at deepening economic ties and promoting reciprocal trade. According to a fact sheet from the White House, the deal expands U.S. export opportunities – particularly in agriculture, aerospace, and pharmaceuticals – creating an estimated $5 billion boost in American goods sold to the UK. Key provisions include reduced or restructured tariffs on specific goods, streamlined customs procedures, the establishment of secure supply chains in strategic sectors, and commitments to high standards in labor, environment, and intellectual property. While framed as part of Trump’s broader “America First” trade policy, the agreement also lays the groundwork for bilateral cooperation on steel, autos, and national economic security.

For subscribers in the auto space, the fact sheet outlines the following provisions in the trade deal:

> Tariff Structure: The U.S. will apply a reciprocal tariff rate of 10% on the first 100,000 vehicles imported annually from UK car manufacturers.

> Higher Tariff for Additional Units: Any UK vehicle imports exceeding 100,000 units per year will be subject to a 25% tariff.

> Section 232 Tariffs: The U.S. agrees to negotiate an alternative arrangement for the Section 232 national security tariffs previously imposed on UK autos.

This structure is designed to give UK carmakers improved access to the U.S. market up to a point, while preserving U.S. leverage through higher tariffs on excess imports. It reflects a broader effort to balance trade and protect domestic industries while maintaining and expanding bilateral economic ties.

The Bigger Picture … Although the U.S.-UK trade agreement does not directly address apparel, footwear, or luxury accessories, it is likely to have meaningful indirect effects on fashion and luxury brands operating across both markets. Streamlined customs procedures and the reduction of non-tariff barriers can enhance supply chain efficiency, reduce shipping delays, and lower compliance costs—factors that are especially critical for brands dependent on speed-to-market or complex logistics. These improvements stand to benefit both fast fashion retailers and high-end labels shipping between the U.S. and UK for e-commerce, retail, or seasonal distribution.

Beyond logistics, the broader economic stability the deal aims to promote could help restore consumer confidence – an essential driver of discretionary spending in sectors like fashion and luxury. Though the agreement does not reduce tariffs on apparel or accessories, it contributes to a stronger commercial environment between the two countries – potentially encouraging future sector-specific negotiations. In doing so, it sets the stage for a more predictable and resilient trade landscape in which retail companies can operate.