Swiss precision may be unmatched, but it was no match for a political curveball out of Washington this week. In a surprise move, President Donald Trump announced a sweeping 39 percent tariff on Swiss imports on Friday, citing trade imbalances and a lack of “reciprocity.” While the new tariff affects everything from cheese to chocolate, it is the luxury watch industry – a pillar of Swiss exports – that may be hit hardest. With the U.S. representing one of the largest markets for Swiss watches, the tariff threatens to shake the very foundations of a tightly controlled global luxury business. But amid the disruption, one segment is poised to benefit: the booming pre-owned and resale watch market.
The tariffs, set to take effect August 7, could raise the prices of Swiss watches in the U.S. by thousands of dollars. Already under pressure from softening demand and currency volatility, the industry is bracing for a major shift in buying behavior. “Prices for Swiss watches in the U.S. are already under pressure from currency swings and waning post-pandemic demand,” said Luca Solca, senior luxury goods analyst at Bernstein. “Add a nearly 40 percent tariff to the mix, and the U.S. suddenly becomes one of the least attractive destinations for Swiss watch exports.”
A Rolex Submariner currently priced at around $10,000 could soon cost closer to $14,000. High-end pieces from brands like Patek Philippe, Vacheron Constantin, and Audemars Piguet – already commanding five- and six-figure prices – could surge even higher. And while ultra-wealthy buyers may shrug off the difference, younger collectors and new entrants into the market are unlikely to be immune to the impending price increases.
As Swiss watch prices are expected to climb sharply due to the 39% tariff, American consumers are likely to shift away from authorized retailers and toward the pre-owned and secondary markets. Already booming thanks to limited supply, long waitlists, and a growing view of watches as investment assets, the resale space stands to benefit even further.
Upending, Repricing the Market
“Tariffs this steep could effectively reprice the entire market,” said a senior executive at a U.S.-based watch resale platform. “Buyers will flock to the secondary market to avoid the markup. And for many models, it will be the only place to buy without a multi-year wait.”
Online platforms like Chrono24, WatchBox, and Bob’s Watches, which offer authenticated timepieces from private sellers and dealers, are expected to see a surge in demand. Iconic models could become even more elusive, with secondary prices rising in step with retail inflation. At the same time, authorized dealers and brand boutiques are facing a dilemma. Brands are unlikely to lower wholesale prices, and dealers are prohibited from discounting. That means the full impact of the tariffs will likely be passed on to consumers – potentially driving them away from official channels altogether. This not only threatens retailer margins but also undermines brand control over pricing, distribution, and customer experience.
The situation may also push more buyers toward gray market channels and international sourcing. While these options are generally legal, the goods often lack manufacturer warranties and raise concerns about authenticity and after-sales support. The growing reliance on unofficial channels could complicate brand enforcement efforts and erode the long-term value proposition of luxury watches as tightly regulated, high-trust products.
In short, while Swiss watchmakers face steep challenges in the U.S. market, resale platforms may emerge as the new center of gravity for American buyers.
A Countdown to Chaos – or Compromise
There is still a possibility of a diplomatic resolution before the August 7 deadline. Trump has previously delayed tariff rollouts to allow for last-minute deals, and the White House has hinted that active negotiators could still see relief. But if no deal is struck, Swiss luxury exports – particularly watches – will face one of their most daunting challenges in decades. Brands may limit inventory in the U.S., adjust global allocations, or shift distribution to more favorable markets.
In the meantime, the pre-owned market is already preparing for a wave of new customers. In a luxury sector built on scarcity and status, resale may soon become the new retail.
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