Briefing: June 6, 2025

Fashion Takes on Tariffs, Retail’s Future, Temu & the De Minimis Loophole & a Counterfeit Crackdown

 

Fashion’s Take on Tariffs

On May 29, Vogue global editorial director Anna Wintour joined Steven Kolb, CEO of the Council of Fashion Designers of America (“CFDA”), and Stephen Lamar, president and CEO of the American Apparel & Footwear Association (“AAFA”), for a closed-door meeting at the White House with Chief of Staff Susie Wiles. The discussion focused on the $500 billion U.S. fashion industry’s outsized economic and cultural footprint – supporting 10 million jobs across sectors from design and retail to live events – while underscoring its disproportionate burden under current U.S. tariff policy.

> With average duties on apparel and footwear exceeding 12 percent and the industry contributing over a quarter of all U.S. import duties despite comprising just 5 percent of total imports, industry leaders pressed for policy reform and fairer treatment.

The conversation also reportedly emphasized fashion’s role as a cultural export ahead of milestones like the U.S. Semi-quincentennial and the 2028 Olympics. Attendees confirmed plans for ongoing engagement with the administration in the weeks ahead.

An AAFA Letter: In a joint letter to President Donald Trump on May 29, five major trade associations – including the AAFA and the CFDA – praised recent comments acknowledging that U.S. tariff policy is not aimed at reshoring footwear and apparel manufacturing. The groups stressed that, while they share the goal of creating high-value American jobs, it is currently unrealistic to scale domestic production of footwear and apparel due to entrenched labor, cost, and supply chain challenges.

With the sector already subject to some of the highest tariff rates in the country, far exceeding those on most consumer goods, the letter urged the administration to pursue pragmatic, targeted trade policies that lower costs for American families and bolster the U.S. fashion and footwear economy without imposing additional burdens on an already overtaxed industry.

>> And speaking of tariffs … The WSJ reported recently that “tariffs are challenging the cachet of luxury goods from Europe.” One of the most interesting excerpts …

“The allure of European provenance is already being questioned in the industry’s second-biggest market: China. After Trump announced his Liberation Day tariffs, a wave of videos flooded TikTok, purporting to reveal the true cost of luxury by showing how a range of high-end handbags, including the Hermès Birkin, which sell for more than $10,000, can be cheaply counterfeited in a Chinese factory.

The scrutiny has shone a spotlight on [factories in] places like Ubrique, Spain, [which] … often work hand-in-hand with brands to develop prototypes and refine products. Longstanding relationships have fostered trust and discretion, helping protect sourcing strategies and unreleased designs.

Chanel purses are made in a discreet workshop with no signage, while Louis Vuitton relies on a longstanding supplier with several sites across town to produce pieces including a $3,000 hobo-style bag.

Luxury brands often promote the image of a single in-house artisan meticulously crafting a handbag from start to finish. In reality, production is more industrial, broken down into a series of repetitive, specialized tasks that require less training – in theory making it easier to shift manufacturing elsewhere.”

The Future of Retail: 6 Disruptions That Could Shape the Next Decade

A new Bain & Company brief delves into the powerful trends reshaping retail business models. At a high level, Bain highlights six “provocative visions of the key trends” that it believes are already driving what it calls a nascent “retail renaissance” …

Among some of the stand out points …

> AI overtake: Not too far in the future, nearly every core retail process will be taken over by AI and physical forms of automation. Core activities such as merchandising, category management, pricing, and promotions will be performed by AI models that will make many decisions on autopilot.

> Shopping agent influx: From a consumer’s perspective, shopping agents are likely to be one of the most exciting applications of AI over the coming years. Such agents will know a consumer’s preferences well enough to research and buy goods on their behalf without having to ask for permission, anticipating what they’ll need and when they’ll need it. For retailers, however, AI shopping agents’ automated, brand-agnostic purchasing decisions could threaten their long-standing relationships with shoppers, posing one of their biggest strategic challenges of the coming decade.

> Consumer values: Consumer values are changing; value has always meant more than just price; it can mean convenient delivery, the right product recommendation at exactly the right moment, and a host of other considerations. This broader definition of value is likely to become more personalized and contextually relevant over the coming decade. For example, what a shopper values on a Monday morning when they are rushing to get to work is different than what they value on the weekend when enjoying leisure time with family and friends.

The Aftermath of the De Minimis Loophole Closure

Temu is seeing a steep decline in U.S. traction, with daily active users dropping by 58% in May, according to data from Sensor Tower. The slump follows the Trump administration’s decision to end the “de minimis” tariff exemption on low-value imports, a move that hit Temu’s low-cost, direct-from-China model hard. In response, Temu has reportedly slashed its U.S. ad spend and began shifting toward a localized fulfillment strategy, but the pivot has yet to stabilize user engagement.

Meanwhile rival Shein has weathered tariff headwinds more effectively, boosting per-customer spending despite rising prices. Analysts warn that if current trade tensions persist, Temu’s competitive edge in the U.S. could continue to erode, though the platform is seeing stronger user growth in less affluent international markets.

Now, Temu’s merchants “can ship individual orders from China to Temu-partnered U.S. warehouses but they would need to address tariffs and customs charges and paper work,” according to a note from analysts at HSBC.

A Counterfeit Crackdown in Vietnam

Vietnamese authorities have cracked down on counterfeit luxury goods with a major raid at Ho Chi Minh City’s Saigon Square Shopping Mall, seizing thousands of fake items, including knockoff Rolex watches and Prada handbags. The operation follows growing U.S. pressure on Vietnam to address its role as a hub for counterfeiting and digital piracy – an issue that could trigger heavy trade penalties. The mall – already listed by the U.S. Trade Representative as a “notorious market” in its annual Special 301 report (excerpt below) – was found to house a range of allegedly inauthentic products targeting brands like Gucci, Louis Vuitton, Dior, and Hermès.

The headline-making bust comes as the market for counterfeits is shifting. As TFL recently reported, the long-standing narrative of China as the sole source of counterfeit goods is evolving, as the country transitions from being the “world’s factory” to an originator and protector of intellectual property.

Vietnam is emerging as a key source of fakes – and is coming under fire for it via U.S. tariff pressure. Specifically, Vietnam is facing a sweeping increase in tariffs on U.S. imports once a 90-day pause by the Trump administration expires. The proposed tariffs come hand in hand with claims from the administration that Vietnam is a major global hub for counterfeit goods and a source of digital piracy.

In response to mounting pressure, Vietnam is intensifying its crackdown on counterfeits. Customs documents show that authorities are now targeting imports of fake luxury goods, electronics, and consumer products, while also stepping up enforcement against unlicensed software use following industry complaints. Meanwhile, Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh has ordered a task force to be set up to combat the export of counterfeit goods of Vietnamese origin.